Minority Report

Brainerd, MN — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Crow Wing County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 38°   Low 26°   Rain 6%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 29 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 29% against a group average of 6%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—21°1%
US model (GFS)40°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)40°28°29%
German model (ICON)37°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)38°19°0%
The average38°26°6%

Friday, November 13

High 35°   Low 22°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service37°20°1%
US model (GFS)33°27°0%
European model (ECMWF)36°26°0%
German model (ICON)35°25°0%
Canadian model (GEM)37°14°0%
The average35°22°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 40°   Low 22°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service39°23°0%
US model (GFS)42°24°0%
European model (ECMWF)40°25°0%
German model (ICON)40°23°0%
Canadian model (GEM)38°14°0%
The average40°22°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 44°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°29°0%
US model (GFS)46°28°1%
European model (ECMWF)44°27°0%
German model (ICON)46°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)42°14°0%
The average44°25°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.