Minority Report

Breckenridge, CO — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Summit County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 51°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—28°0%
US model (GFS)52°24°0%
European model (ECMWF)51°24°0%
German model (ICON)50°25°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°22°0%
The average51°25°0%

Friday, November 13

High 51°   Low 26°   Rain 4%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 22 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 22% against a group average of 4%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°26°22%
US model (GFS)52°29°0%
European model (ECMWF)51°28°0%
German model (ICON)49°21°0%
Canadian model (GEM)51°25°0%
The average51°26°4%

Saturday, November 14

High 40°   Low 25°   Rain 76%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 33 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 57% against a group average of 76%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service40°24°76%
US model (GFS)41°25°71%
European model (ECMWF)38°28°84%
German model (ICON)40°24°57%
Canadian model (GEM)39°26°90%
The average40°25°76%

Sunday, November 15

High 42°   Low 23°   Rain 35%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 66 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 68% against a group average of 35%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service40°21°2%
US model (GFS)43°24°49%
European model (ECMWF)42°24°33%
German model (ICON)41°28°22%
Canadian model (GEM)43°19°68%
The average42°23°35%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.