Minority Report

Breckenridge, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Stephens County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 77°   Low 47°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—49°0%
US model (GFS)78°45°0%
European model (ECMWF)77°49°0%
German model (ICON)77°46°0%
Canadian model (GEM)77°44°0%
The average77°47°0%

Friday, November 13

High 70°   Low 48°   Rain 0%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service71°48°0%
US model (GFS)73°49°0%
European model (ECMWF)70°52°0%
German model (ICON)67°47°0%
Canadian model (GEM)70°44°0%
The average70°48°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 62°   Low 49°   Rain 82%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 25 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 96% against a group average of 82%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service63°49°88%
US model (GFS)65°47°71%
European model (ECMWF)61°50°96%
German model (ICON)57°49°86%
Canadian model (GEM)65°49°71%
The average62°49°82%

Sunday, November 15

High 60°   Low 46°   Rain 84%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 22°, rain spread 30 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 68% against a group average of 84%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service58°44°75%
US model (GFS)73°48°83%
European model (ECMWF)61°48°98%
German model (ICON)51°46°68%
Canadian model (GEM)60°44°95%
The average60°46°84%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.