Minority Report

Bristol, VA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Bristol city.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 53°   Low 40°   Rain 81%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 62 points, 3 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 38% against a group average of 81%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—36°38%
US model (GFS)53°41°86%
German model (ICON)52°43°100%
Canadian model (GEM)55°42°100%
The average53°40°81%

Friday, November 13

High 44°   Low 36°   Rain 76%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 38 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 76%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°31°65%
US model (GFS)43°37°62%
German model (ICON)44°38°75%
Canadian model (GEM)45°38°100%
The average44°36°76%

Saturday, November 14

High 41°   Low 29°   Rain 37%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 77 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 90% against a group average of 37%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°28°13%
US model (GFS)40°28°13%
German model (ICON)41°34°33%
Canadian model (GEM)41°24°90%
The average41°29°37%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°27°0%
US model (GFS)44°27°0%
German model (ICON)48°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)44°24°0%
The average46°28°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.