Minority Report

Broken Arrow, OK — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right.

Updated Thursday, November 12, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 64°   Low 42°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service64°35°1%
US model (GFS)65°45°1%
European model (ECMWF)62°44°0%
German model (ICON)64°43°0%
Canadian model (GEM)66°44°0%
The average64°42°0%

Friday, November 13

High 52°   Low 35°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°33°0%
US model (GFS)52°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)51°38°0%
German model (ICON)52°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)53°34°0%
The average52°35°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 55°   Low 33°   Rain 16%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 27 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 30% against a group average of 16%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°38°30%
US model (GFS)55°33°3%
European model (ECMWF)54°36°13%
German model (ICON)56°29°8%
Canadian model (GEM)55°29°25%
The average55°33°16%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 40°   Rain 66%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 13°, rain spread 40 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 90% against a group average of 66%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°37°61%
US model (GFS)57°42°65%
European model (ECMWF)46°43°63%
German model (ICON)46°41°50%
Canadian model (GEM)44°40°90%
The average48°40°66%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.