Minority Report

Brookville, PA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Jefferson County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 48°   Low 37°   Rain 85%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 63 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 37% against a group average of 85%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°37%
US model (GFS)46°37°88%
European model (ECMWF)49°40°100%
German model (ICON)47°38°100%
Canadian model (GEM)49°38°100%
The average48°37°85%

Friday, November 13

High 40°   Low 32°   Rain 34%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 45 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 8% against a group average of 34%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°27°28%
US model (GFS)38°32°8%
European model (ECMWF)40°35°42%
German model (ICON)39°32°53%
Canadian model (GEM)38°34°38%
The average40°32°34%

Saturday, November 14

High 42°   Low 32°   Rain 47%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 57 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 81% against a group average of 47%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°29°44%
US model (GFS)41°32°24%
European model (ECMWF)44°33°43%
German model (ICON)41°33°44%
Canadian model (GEM)42°33°81%
The average42°32°47%

Sunday, November 15

High 43°   Low 35°   Rain 32%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 45 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 64% against a group average of 32%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°30°19%
US model (GFS)42°35°28%
European model (ECMWF)42°35°24%
German model (ICON)41°37°26%
Canadian model (GEM)42°36°64%
The average43°35°32%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.