Buffalo, NY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Erie County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 46° Low 37° Rain 60%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 86 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 33° | 7% |
| US model (GFS) | 46° | 36° | 38% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 46° | 40° | 73% |
| German model (ICON) | 47° | 40° | 93% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 46° | 35° | 90% |
| The average | 46° | 37° | 60% |
High 40° Low 35° Rain 19%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 12 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 41° | 32° | 26% |
| US model (GFS) | 38° | 34° | 14% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 40° | 37° | 18% |
| German model (ICON) | 40° | 38° | 25% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 39° | 35° | 14% |
| The average | 40° | 35° | 19% |
High 43° Low 36° Rain 59%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 41 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 43° | 34° | 45% |
| US model (GFS) | 43° | 34° | 47% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 43° | 38° | 86% |
| German model (ICON) | 44° | 38° | 65% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 43° | 35° | 52% |
| The average | 43° | 36° | 59% |
High 43° Low 38° Rain 36%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 41 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 45° | 34° | 33% |
| US model (GFS) | 42° | 39° | 47% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 43° | 39° | 59% |
| German model (ICON) | 43° | 40° | 25% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 40° | 37° | 18% |
| The average | 43° | 38° | 36% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.