Minority Report

Buffalo, OK — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Harper County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 67°   Low 40°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—33°0%
US model (GFS)67°41°0%
European model (ECMWF)66°45°0%
German model (ICON)68°42°0%
Canadian model (GEM)67°40°0%
The average67°40°0%

Friday, November 13

High 56°   Low 36°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°33°0%
US model (GFS)56°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)57°39°0%
German model (ICON)56°36°0%
Canadian model (GEM)56°33°0%
The average56°36°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 55°   Low 36°   Rain 92%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 13 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°37°97%
US model (GFS)56°33°85%
European model (ECMWF)52°40°98%
German model (ICON)57°37°89%
Canadian model (GEM)55°34°93%
The average55°36°92%

Sunday, November 15

High 45°   Low 39°   Rain 88%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 41 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 59% against a group average of 88%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°35°59%
US model (GFS)46°41°94%
European model (ECMWF)45°41°100%
German model (ICON)44°41°94%
Canadian model (GEM)42°38°95%
The average45°39°88%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.