Minority Report

Burlington, IA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Des Moines County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 47°   Low 35°   Rain 4%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 14 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 14% against a group average of 4%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°0%
US model (GFS)46°35°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°37°14%
German model (ICON)48°34°5%
Canadian model (GEM)47°36°0%
The average47°35°4%

Friday, November 13

High 42°   Low 29°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°25°0%
US model (GFS)42°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)42°33°0%
German model (ICON)43°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)42°28°0%
The average42°29°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°27°0%
US model (GFS)45°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)44°29°0%
German model (ICON)47°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)44°23°0%
The average45°27°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 49°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°28°0%
US model (GFS)50°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°29°0%
German model (ICON)51°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°19°0%
The average49°27°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.