Minority Report

Cadillac, MI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Wexford County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 41°   Low 31°   Rain 71%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 84 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 12% against a group average of 71%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°12%
US model (GFS)41°32°67%
European model (ECMWF)42°32°96%
German model (ICON)41°30°83%
Canadian model (GEM)41°32°96%
The average41°31°71%

Friday, November 13

High 39°   Low 29°   Rain 41%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 72 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 87% against a group average of 41%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service39°28°53%
US model (GFS)38°31°21%
European model (ECMWF)39°28°31%
German model (ICON)38°27°15%
Canadian model (GEM)39°29°87%
The average39°29°41%

Saturday, November 14

High 40°   Low 32°   Rain 37%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 85 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 95% against a group average of 37%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°28°30%
US model (GFS)39°34°16%
European model (ECMWF)38°32°35%
German model (ICON)42°32°10%
Canadian model (GEM)40°33°95%
The average40°32°37%

Sunday, November 15

High 43°   Low 31°   Rain 9%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 19 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°26°9%
US model (GFS)43°34°16%
European model (ECMWF)43°32°2%
German model (ICON)44°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)41°33°19%
The average43°31°9%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.