Minority Report

Caldwell, ID — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Canyon County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 63°   Low 41°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—41°0%
US model (GFS)64°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)62°46°0%
German model (ICON)65°39°0%
Canadian model (GEM)62°40°0%
The average63°41°0%

Friday, November 13

High 65°   Low 44°   Rain 81%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 42 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 56% against a group average of 81%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service66°41°83%
US model (GFS)67°39°56%
European model (ECMWF)65°49°98%
German model (ICON)66°46°83%
Canadian model (GEM)59°43°86%
The average65°44°81%

Saturday, November 14

High 58°   Low 41°   Rain 68%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 98 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 2% against a group average of 68%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°37°2%
US model (GFS)57°40°71%
European model (ECMWF)57°42°100%
German model (ICON)58°46°80%
Canadian model (GEM)59°42°86%
The average58°41°68%

Sunday, November 15

High 59°   Low 43°   Rain 34%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 53 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 5% against a group average of 34%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service58°38°40%
US model (GFS)59°44°16%
European model (ECMWF)60°44°51%
German model (ICON)59°46°58%
Canadian model (GEM)59°40°5%
The average59°43°34%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.