Minority Report

Caldwell, OH — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Noble County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 50°   Low 42°   Rain 89%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 38 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 62% against a group average of 89%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—37°62%
US model (GFS)50°43°84%
European model (ECMWF)52°44°100%
German model (ICON)52°43°100%
Canadian model (GEM)49°43°100%
The average50°42°89%

Friday, November 13

High 46°   Low 34°   Rain 63%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 75 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 25% against a group average of 63%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°31°25%
US model (GFS)44°34°46%
European model (ECMWF)47°35°100%
German model (ICON)45°34°53%
Canadian model (GEM)46°36°89%
The average46°34°63%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 33°   Rain 19%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 18 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°31°21%
US model (GFS)44°34°28%
European model (ECMWF)46°33°12%
German model (ICON)46°32°10%
Canadian model (GEM)43°35°24%
The average45°33°19%

Sunday, November 15

High 47°   Low 35°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°31°0%
US model (GFS)47°39°1%
European model (ECMWF)46°39°2%
German model (ICON)49°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°33°0%
The average47°35°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.