Minority Report

Caldwell, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Burleson County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 78°   Low 53°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—48°0%
US model (GFS)80°54°0%
European model (ECMWF)76°55°0%
German model (ICON)76°55°0%
Canadian model (GEM)79°54°0%
The average78°53°0%

Friday, November 13

High 77°   Low 51°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service75°48°0%
US model (GFS)80°52°0%
European model (ECMWF)76°54°0%
German model (ICON)75°52°0%
Canadian model (GEM)79°47°0%
The average77°51°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 67°   Low 51°   Rain 37%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 10°, rain spread 67 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 0% against a group average of 37%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service68°50°38%
US model (GFS)68°52°18%
European model (ECMWF)67°53°67%
German model (ICON)61°51°63%
Canadian model (GEM)72°49°0%
The average67°51°37%

Sunday, November 15

High 62°   Low 51°   Rain 82%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 14°, rain spread 15 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 71% against a group average of 82%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service64°48°82%
US model (GFS)69°54°71%
European model (ECMWF)58°52°86%
German model (ICON)55°52°83%
Canadian model (GEM)64°52°86%
The average62°51°82%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.