Minority Report

Caledonia, MN — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Houston County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 39°   Low 30°   Rain 17%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 42 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 43% against a group average of 17%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—25°2%
US model (GFS)38°30°1%
European model (ECMWF)40°33°14%
German model (ICON)40°31°43%
Canadian model (GEM)39°31°24%
The average39°30°17%

Friday, November 13

High 38°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service40°22°0%
US model (GFS)37°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)38°27°0%
German model (ICON)39°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)39°23°0%
The average38°26°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 42°   Low 24°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°24°0%
US model (GFS)42°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)41°24°0%
German model (ICON)42°25°0%
Canadian model (GEM)40°18°0%
The average42°24°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 24°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°27°0%
US model (GFS)47°28°0%
European model (ECMWF)45°24°0%
German model (ICON)46°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°14°0%
The average46°24°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.