Canandaigua, NY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Ontario County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 45° Low 37° Rain 90%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 42 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 33° | 58% |
| US model (GFS) | 44° | 36° | 92% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 45° | 38° | 100% |
| German model (ICON) | 44° | 39° | 98% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 46° | 38° | 100% |
| The average | 45° | 37° | 90% |
High 39° Low 34° Rain 60%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 71 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 40° | 31° | 47% |
| US model (GFS) | 38° | 33° | 26% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 38° | 35° | 97% |
| German model (ICON) | 39° | 34° | 70% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 38° | 34° | 62% |
| The average | 39° | 34° | 60% |
High 40° Low 34° Rain 87%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 19 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 41° | 34° | 77% |
| US model (GFS) | 39° | 33° | 77% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 40° | 36° | 96% |
| German model (ICON) | 40° | 33° | 93% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 38° | 34° | 92% |
| The average | 40° | 34° | 87% |
High 40° Low 35° Rain 72%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 51 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 43° | 34° | 58% |
| US model (GFS) | 38° | 34° | 77% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 40° | 36° | 96% |
| German model (ICON) | 42° | 37° | 86% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 38° | 36° | 45% |
| The average | 40° | 35° | 72% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.