Minority Report

Carlinville, IL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Macoupin County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 47°   Low 34°   Rain 9%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 17 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 20% against a group average of 9%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°6%
US model (GFS)46°34°3%
European model (ECMWF)47°39°20%
German model (ICON)48°33°8%
Canadian model (GEM)46°32°10%
The average47°34°9%

Friday, November 13

High 43°   Low 29°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 7 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°23°7%
US model (GFS)44°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)43°34°0%
German model (ICON)45°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)41°27°0%
The average43°29°1%

Saturday, November 14

High 47°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°24°0%
US model (GFS)47°24°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°29°0%
German model (ICON)49°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°22°0%
The average47°25°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°26°0%
US model (GFS)52°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°28°0%
German model (ICON)53°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)49°18°0%
The average51°27°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.