Carlisle, KY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Nicholas County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 54° Low 41° Rain 78%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 58 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 39° | 42% |
| US model (GFS) | 54° | 39° | 77% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 54° | 43° | 100% |
| German model (ICON) | 55° | 43° | 78% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 54° | 42° | 93% |
| The average | 54° | 41° | 78% |
High 44° Low 34° Rain 61%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 42 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 42° | 30° | 40% |
| US model (GFS) | 44° | 33° | 39% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 47° | 36° | 80% |
| German model (ICON) | 45° | 37° | 65% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 44° | 36° | 81% |
| The average | 44° | 34° | 61% |
High 46° Low 32° Rain 2%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 45° | 30° | 2% |
| US model (GFS) | 46° | 32° | 3% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 47° | 35° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 45° | 34° | 5% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 45° | 30° | 1% |
| The average | 46° | 32° | 2% |
High 48° Low 33° Rain 0%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 48° | 28° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 48° | 36° | 0% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 46° | 38° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 51° | 35° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 46° | 25° | 0% |
| The average | 48° | 33° | 0% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.