Minority Report

Carlsbad, NM — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Eddy County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 70°   Low 43°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—46°0%
US model (GFS)70°43°0%
European model (ECMWF)68°44°0%
German model (ICON)69°45°0%
Canadian model (GEM)72°40°0%
The average70°43°0%

Friday, November 13

High 70°   Low 43°   Rain 64%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 44 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 96% against a group average of 64%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service70°51°52%
US model (GFS)70°43°60%
European model (ECMWF)70°44°96%
German model (ICON)69°44°55%
Canadian model (GEM)72°34°57%
The average70°43°64%

Saturday, November 14

High 69°   Low 51°   Rain 46%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 85 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 3% against a group average of 46%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service68°49°3%
US model (GFS)69°54°27%
European model (ECMWF)68°51°88%
German model (ICON)70°52°63%
Canadian model (GEM)69°48°48%
The average69°51°46%

Sunday, November 15

High 64°   Low 46°   Rain 0%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service64°46°0%
US model (GFS)67°53°0%
European model (ECMWF)60°46°2%
German model (ICON)65°50°0%
Canadian model (GEM)63°36°0%
The average64°46°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.