Minority Report

Carmi, IL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of White County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 55°   Low 36°   Rain 15%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 19 points, 3 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 3% against a group average of 15%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—33°3%
US model (GFS)54°35°22%
European model (ECMWF)56°40°20%
Canadian model (GEM)56°35°14%
The average55°36°15%

Friday, November 13

High 45°   Low 32°   Rain 3%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 10 points, 4 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°28°10%
US model (GFS)44°33°1%
European model (ECMWF)46°37°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°32°0%
The average45°32°3%

Saturday, November 14

High 49°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°27°0%
US model (GFS)49°29°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)49°25°0%
The average49°28°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 52°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°29°0%
US model (GFS)53°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)52°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)51°19°0%
The average52°28°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.