Minority Report

Carolina Municipio, PR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Carolina Municipio.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 90°   Low 76°   Rain 30%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 91 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 91% against a group average of 30%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—79°30%
US model (GFS)89°76°13%
European model (ECMWF)90°77°91%
German model (ICON)90°75°15%
Canadian model (GEM)91°71°0%
The average90°76°30%

Friday, November 13

High 90°   Low 78°   Rain 14%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 45 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 45% against a group average of 14%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service92°79°20%
US model (GFS)88°77°3%
European model (ECMWF)88°78°45%
German model (ICON)90°79°3%
Canadian model (GEM)91°76°0%
The average90°78°14%

Saturday, November 14

High 90°   Low 78°   Rain 24%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 81 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 81% against a group average of 24%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service90°78°30%
US model (GFS)89°78°0%
European model (ECMWF)88°79°81%
German model (ICON)90°81°8%
Canadian model (GEM)92°77°0%
The average90°78°24%

Sunday, November 15

High 90°   Low 75°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service90°78°1%
US model (GFS)88°76°3%
European model (ECMWF)88°76°1%
German model (ICON)91°73°0%
Canadian model (GEM)92°72°0%
The average90°75°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.