Minority Report

Carrizozo, NM — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Lincoln County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 65°   Low 37°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—39°0%
US model (GFS)64°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)64°39°0%
German model (ICON)64°42°0%
Canadian model (GEM)65°30°0%
The average65°37°0%

Friday, November 13

High 65°   Low 38°   Rain 46%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 45 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 77% against a group average of 46%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°43°32%
US model (GFS)66°39°40%
European model (ECMWF)64°40°77%
German model (ICON)66°43°48%
Canadian model (GEM)65°27°34%
The average65°38°46%

Saturday, November 14

High 54°   Low 41°   Rain 63%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 61 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 63%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°39°39%
US model (GFS)54°42°44%
European model (ECMWF)53°42°100%
German model (ICON)53°46°75%
Canadian model (GEM)51°36°57%
The average54°41°63%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 37°   Rain 9%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 28 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 28% against a group average of 9%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°36°0%
US model (GFS)56°40°3%
European model (ECMWF)59°37°5%
German model (ICON)56°41°28%
Canadian model (GEM)54°29°9%
The average56°37°9%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.