Minority Report

Carson City, NV — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Carson City.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 63°   Low 32°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 4 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—34°4%
US model (GFS)64°24°0%
European model (ECMWF)62°41°0%
German model (ICON)63°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)61°31°0%
The average63°32°1%

Friday, November 13

High 55°   Low 34°   Rain 94%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 11 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°26°89%
US model (GFS)58°36°90%
European model (ECMWF)51°39°100%
German model (ICON)55°36°90%
Canadian model (GEM)54°31°100%
The average55°34°94%

Saturday, November 14

High 51°   Low 31°   Rain 18%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 60 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 62% against a group average of 18%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°26°2%
US model (GFS)48°34°6%
European model (ECMWF)50°34°15%
German model (ICON)52°33°3%
Canadian model (GEM)53°29°62%
The average51°31°18%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 35°   Rain 42%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 62 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 79% against a group average of 42%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°29°79%
US model (GFS)54°40°50%
European model (ECMWF)55°39°30%
German model (ICON)58°38°17%
Canadian model (GEM)59°30°36%
The average56°35°42%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.