Minority Report

Carthage, MO — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Jasper County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 58°   Low 34°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—29°0%
US model (GFS)58°36°0%
European model (ECMWF)57°37°0%
German model (ICON)57°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)58°34°0%
The average58°34°0%

Friday, November 13

High 47°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°25°0%
US model (GFS)46°29°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°33°0%
German model (ICON)48°27°0%
Canadian model (GEM)48°25°0%
The average47°28°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 52°   Low 26°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°34°3%
US model (GFS)53°20°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°29°0%
German model (ICON)54°24°0%
Canadian model (GEM)51°22°0%
The average52°26°1%

Sunday, November 15

High 54°   Low 35°   Rain 17%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 30 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 38% against a group average of 17%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°34°12%
US model (GFS)57°36°12%
European model (ECMWF)53°35°8%
German model (ICON)56°33°15%
Canadian model (GEM)50°34°38%
The average54°35°17%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.