Minority Report

Carthage, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Panola County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 76°   Low 50°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—44°1%
US model (GFS)78°51°0%
European model (ECMWF)75°52°0%
German model (ICON)75°49°0%
Canadian model (GEM)77°53°0%
The average76°50°0%

Friday, November 13

High 65°   Low 45°   Rain 0%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service66°41°1%
US model (GFS)64°48°0%
European model (ECMWF)64°48°0%
German model (ICON)63°42°0%
Canadian model (GEM)70°48°0%
The average65°45°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 61°   Low 41°   Rain 7%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 16 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°42°16%
US model (GFS)63°41°2%
European model (ECMWF)60°43°8%
German model (ICON)58°36°8%
Canadian model (GEM)62°43°0%
The average61°41°7%

Sunday, November 15

High 54°   Low 44°   Rain 80%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 11°, rain spread 27 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 94% against a group average of 80%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service58°42°75%
US model (GFS)59°46°67%
European model (ECMWF)50°44°94%
German model (ICON)49°44°83%
Canadian model (GEM)52°44°82%
The average54°44°80%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.