Minority Report

Cascade, ID — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Valley County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 60°   Low 33°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—39°0%
US model (GFS)59°23°0%
European model (ECMWF)60°31°0%
German model (ICON)62°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)58°39°0%
The average60°33°0%

Friday, November 13

High 57°   Low 36°   Rain 93%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 12 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°38°98%
US model (GFS)57°40°92%
European model (ECMWF)56°32°86%
German model (ICON)58°35°98%
Canadian model (GEM)57°36°90%
The average57°36°93%

Saturday, November 14

High 43°   Low 32°   Rain 90%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 49 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 51% against a group average of 90%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°33°51%
US model (GFS)40°29°98%
European model (ECMWF)43°32°100%
German model (ICON)45°34°100%
Canadian model (GEM)44°33°100%
The average43°32°90%

Sunday, November 15

High 49°   Low 31°   Rain 52%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 54 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 22% against a group average of 52%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°30°76%
US model (GFS)48°28°22%
European model (ECMWF)51°32°51%
German model (ICON)51°33°70%
Canadian model (GEM)49°32°43%
The average49°31°52%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.