Minority Report

Castle Rock, CO — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Douglas County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 64°   Low 35°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—38°0%
US model (GFS)65°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)64°38°0%
German model (ICON)63°37°0%
Canadian model (GEM)65°27°0%
The average64°35°0%

Friday, November 13

High 66°   Low 37°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service66°37°2%
US model (GFS)66°42°0%
European model (ECMWF)65°39°0%
German model (ICON)65°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)67°32°0%
The average66°37°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 53°   Low 35°   Rain 42%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 24 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 55% against a group average of 42%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°37°31%
US model (GFS)56°33°45%
European model (ECMWF)52°36°55%
German model (ICON)54°35°33%
Canadian model (GEM)52°35°44%
The average53°35°42%

Sunday, November 15

High 55°   Low 32°   Rain 18%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 24 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 3% against a group average of 18%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°33°3%
US model (GFS)56°33°27%
European model (ECMWF)56°34°18%
German model (ICON)57°32°23%
Canadian model (GEM)55°30°21%
The average55°32°18%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.