Minority Report

Cayey Municipio, PR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Cayey Municipio.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 83°   Low 70°   Rain 51%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 80 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 51%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—71°20%
US model (GFS)82°69°42%
European model (ECMWF)84°72°100%
German model (ICON)81°69°60%
Canadian model (GEM)84°70°33%
The average83°70°51%

Friday, November 13

High 81°   Low 71°   Rain 58%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 65 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 95% against a group average of 58%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service81°71°30%
US model (GFS)80°69°39%
European model (ECMWF)83°72°94%
German model (ICON)81°73°33%
Canadian model (GEM)82°71°95%
The average81°71°58%

Saturday, November 14

High 81°   Low 71°   Rain 62%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 62 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 96% against a group average of 62%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service81°70°40%
US model (GFS)80°69°48%
European model (ECMWF)81°71°96%
German model (ICON)82°74°34%
Canadian model (GEM)80°72°93%
The average81°71°62%

Sunday, November 15

High 82°   Low 69°   Rain 10%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 11 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service81°68°3%
US model (GFS)81°68°4%
European model (ECMWF)83°69°14%
German model (ICON)82°71°13%
Canadian model (GEM)82°68°14%
The average82°69°10%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.