Minority Report

Ceiba Municipio, PR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Ceiba Municipio.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 88°   Low 78°   Rain 44%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 93 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 99% against a group average of 44%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—81°50%
US model (GFS)85°78°42%
European model (ECMWF)88°77°99%
German model (ICON)88°78°25%
Canadian model (GEM)90°77°6%
The average88°78°44%

Friday, November 13

High 87°   Low 79°   Rain 40%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 94 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 40%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service86°79°50%
US model (GFS)85°79°30%
European model (ECMWF)86°77°100%
German model (ICON)88°80°15%
Canadian model (GEM)88°79°6%
The average87°79°40%

Saturday, November 14

High 86°   Low 79°   Rain 40%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 100 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 40%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service86°79°50%
US model (GFS)85°79°26%
European model (ECMWF)85°78°100%
German model (ICON)88°82°23%
Canadian model (GEM)85°78°0%
The average86°79°40%

Sunday, November 15

High 87°   Low 77°   Rain 10%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 13 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service88°78°9%
US model (GFS)85°78°3%
European model (ECMWF)85°76°16%
German model (ICON)89°77°13%
Canadian model (GEM)88°76°11%
The average87°77°10%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.