Minority Report

Centerville, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Leon County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 78°   Low 52°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—48°0%
US model (GFS)78°53°0%
European model (ECMWF)77°54°0%
German model (ICON)77°53°0%
Canadian model (GEM)79°54°0%
The average78°52°0%

Friday, November 13

High 73°   Low 49°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service72°45°0%
US model (GFS)73°50°0%
European model (ECMWF)73°52°0%
German model (ICON)71°48°0%
Canadian model (GEM)75°48°0%
The average73°49°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 66°   Low 48°   Rain 26%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 46 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 0% against a group average of 26%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service66°46°44%
US model (GFS)67°46°16%
European model (ECMWF)68°50°46%
German model (ICON)61°45°26%
Canadian model (GEM)67°51°0%
The average66°48°26%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 47°   Rain 84%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 10°, rain spread 26 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 68% against a group average of 84%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service59°45°83%
US model (GFS)62°48°68%
European model (ECMWF)54°48°94%
German model (ICON)52°47°86%
Canadian model (GEM)56°49°87%
The average56°47°84%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.