Minority Report

Central City, CO — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Gilpin County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 57°   Low 31°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—33°0%
US model (GFS)58°36°0%
European model (ECMWF)58°25°0%
German model (ICON)57°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)56°29°0%
The average57°31°0%

Friday, November 13

High 56°   Low 31°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°33°4%
US model (GFS)55°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)56°25°0%
German model (ICON)57°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)56°28°0%
The average56°31°1%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 29°   Rain 49%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 22 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 61% against a group average of 49%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°31°48%
US model (GFS)46°30°61%
European model (ECMWF)44°26°39%
German model (ICON)47°32°57%
Canadian model (GEM)41°27°39%
The average45°29°49%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 28°   Rain 12%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 25 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 26% against a group average of 12%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°29°1%
US model (GFS)48°27°9%
European model (ECMWF)48°26°2%
German model (ICON)50°32°26%
Canadian model (GEM)47°25°23%
The average48°28°12%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.