Minority Report

Cheboygan, MI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Cheboygan County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 43°   Low 35°   Rain 74%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 88 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 12% against a group average of 74%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—34°12%
US model (GFS)42°33°63%
European model (ECMWF)44°37°100%
German model (ICON)45°35°100%
Canadian model (GEM)42°35°96%
The average43°35°74%

Friday, November 13

High 39°   Low 34°   Rain 39%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 61 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 8% against a group average of 39%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service39°35°52%
US model (GFS)38°33°25%
European model (ECMWF)40°35°69%
German model (ICON)40°34°43%
Canadian model (GEM)40°34°8%
The average39°34°39%

Saturday, November 14

High 42°   Low 36°   Rain 22%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 69 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 73% against a group average of 22%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°33°4%
US model (GFS)42°35°7%
European model (ECMWF)41°37°73%
German model (ICON)43°37°13%
Canadian model (GEM)41°37°14%
The average42°36°22%

Sunday, November 15

High 43°   Low 35°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°33°0%
US model (GFS)42°35°3%
European model (ECMWF)44°36°2%
German model (ICON)42°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)41°33°0%
The average43°35°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.