Chelsea, VT — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Orange County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 40° Low 34° Rain 78%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 42 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 29° | 65% |
| US model (GFS) | 40° | 35° | 58% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 38° | 35° | 100% |
| German model (ICON) | 40° | 34° | 83% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 42° | 35° | 82% |
| The average | 40° | 34° | 78% |
High 39° Low 30° Rain 43%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 50 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 39° | 25° | 29% |
| US model (GFS) | 39° | 33° | 17% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 40° | 30° | 49% |
| German model (ICON) | 37° | 32° | 55% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 38° | 32° | 67% |
| The average | 39° | 30° | 43% |
High 39° Low 31° Rain 38%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 51 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 39° | 28° | 31% |
| US model (GFS) | 40° | 31° | 37% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 40° | 31° | 69% |
| German model (ICON) | 39° | 33° | 18% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 39° | 34° | 33% |
| The average | 39° | 31° | 38% |
High 39° Low 32° Rain 18%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 20 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 39° | 27° | 28% |
| US model (GFS) | 38° | 30° | 14% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 39° | 34° | 24% |
| German model (ICON) | 38° | 34° | 8% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 41° | 34° | 14% |
| The average | 39° | 32° | 18% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.