Minority Report

Cherokee, OK — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Alfalfa County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 65°   Low 39°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—33°0%
US model (GFS)64°41°0%
European model (ECMWF)64°42°0%
German model (ICON)64°42°0%
Canadian model (GEM)66°36°0%
The average65°39°0%

Friday, November 13

High 53°   Low 36°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°33°0%
US model (GFS)53°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)52°39°0%
German model (ICON)52°36°0%
Canadian model (GEM)55°34°0%
The average53°36°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 54°   Low 36°   Rain 72%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 20 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 61% against a group average of 72%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°37°75%
US model (GFS)54°34°67%
European model (ECMWF)53°38°75%
German model (ICON)55°37°61%
Canadian model (GEM)56°34°81%
The average54°36°72%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 40°   Rain 88%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 15 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°35°80%
US model (GFS)50°41°86%
European model (ECMWF)46°42°90%
German model (ICON)47°42°89%
Canadian model (GEM)42°40°95%
The average46°40°88%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.