Minority Report

Chestertown, MD — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Kent County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 65°   Low 47°   Rain 60%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 67 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 60%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—38°34%
US model (GFS)66°48°36%
European model (ECMWF)64°50°100%
German model (ICON)62°51°95%
Canadian model (GEM)67°50°33%
The average65°47°60%

Friday, November 13

High 50°   Low 39°   Rain 65%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 44 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 90% against a group average of 65%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°33°66%
US model (GFS)49°38°46%
European model (ECMWF)50°41°90%
German model (ICON)51°41°68%
Canadian model (GEM)51°41°54%
The average50°39°65%

Saturday, November 14

High 49°   Low 37°   Rain 22%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 43 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 0% against a group average of 22%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°35°0%
US model (GFS)47°34°6%
European model (ECMWF)49°38°23%
German model (ICON)49°39°43%
Canadian model (GEM)48°38°39%
The average49°37°22%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 38°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°33°0%
US model (GFS)50°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)51°40°0%
German model (ICON)51°42°1%
Canadian model (GEM)50°38°0%
The average51°38°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.