Minority Report

Chicago, IL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Cook County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 45°   Low 37°   Rain 72%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 65 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 35% against a group average of 72%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—35°77%
US model (GFS)45°36°56%
European model (ECMWF)45°38°35%
German model (ICON)46°40°93%
Canadian model (GEM)44°37°100%
The average45°37°72%

Friday, November 13

High 40°   Low 34°   Rain 81%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 53 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 47% against a group average of 81%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service39°34°94%
US model (GFS)38°32°64%
European model (ECMWF)42°35°47%
German model (ICON)42°36°100%
Canadian model (GEM)42°35°100%
The average40°34°81%

Saturday, November 14

High 46°   Low 32°   Rain 35%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 89 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 90% against a group average of 35%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°33°1%
US model (GFS)47°30°20%
European model (ECMWF)45°32°14%
German model (ICON)48°33°48%
Canadian model (GEM)43°29°90%
The average46°32°35%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 32°   Rain 3%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 11 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°34°1%
US model (GFS)47°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°30°0%
German model (ICON)49°34°3%
Canadian model (GEM)47°25°11%
The average48°32°3%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.