Minority Report

Cimarron, KS — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Gray County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 66°   Low 37°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°0%
US model (GFS)68°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)62°39°0%
German model (ICON)68°40°0%
Canadian model (GEM)67°36°0%
The average66°37°0%

Friday, November 13

High 54°   Low 33°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°32°3%
US model (GFS)54°35°0%
European model (ECMWF)54°36°0%
German model (ICON)52°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)55°30°0%
The average54°33°1%

Saturday, November 14

High 49°   Low 35°   Rain 86%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 25 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 70% against a group average of 86%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°36°94%
US model (GFS)51°32°82%
European model (ECMWF)46°36°95%
German model (ICON)49°37°70%
Canadian model (GEM)48°35°91%
The average49°35°86%

Sunday, November 15

High 43°   Low 38°   Rain 76%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 68 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 29% against a group average of 76%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°34°29%
US model (GFS)43°40°87%
European model (ECMWF)44°39°97%
German model (ICON)42°39°73%
Canadian model (GEM)41°37°96%
The average43°38°76%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.