Minority Report

Circleville, OH — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Pickaway County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 52°   Low 42°   Rain 92%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 21 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 79% against a group average of 92%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—38°86%
US model (GFS)52°43°79%
European model (ECMWF)55°42°100%
German model (ICON)52°43°95%
Canadian model (GEM)50°42°100%
The average52°42°92%

Friday, November 13

High 44°   Low 35°   Rain 72%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 73 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 27% against a group average of 72%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°30°27%
US model (GFS)44°36°74%
European model (ECMWF)45°35°100%
German model (ICON)45°36°80%
Canadian model (GEM)44°36°79%
The average44°35°72%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 31°   Rain 8%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 25 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 26% against a group average of 8%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°34°1%
US model (GFS)45°31°3%
European model (ECMWF)47°31°7%
German model (ICON)44°31°3%
Canadian model (GEM)42°29°26%
The average45°31°8%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 35°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°31°0%
US model (GFS)47°40°0%
European model (ECMWF)45°36°2%
German model (ICON)48°36°1%
Canadian model (GEM)42°34°0%
The average46°35°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.