Minority Report

Clayton, NM — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Union County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 68°   Low 40°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—39°0%
US model (GFS)68°40°0%
European model (ECMWF)67°41°0%
German model (ICON)67°41°0%
Canadian model (GEM)69°41°0%
The average68°40°0%

Friday, November 13

High 62°   Low 38°   Rain 10%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 50 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 50% against a group average of 10%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service62°40°50%
US model (GFS)64°37°1%
European model (ECMWF)61°40°0%
German model (ICON)60°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)62°34°0%
The average62°38°10%

Saturday, November 14

High 46°   Low 39°   Rain 83%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 29 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 83%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°38°82%
US model (GFS)46°38°81%
European model (ECMWF)46°40°100%
German model (ICON)46°40°80%
Canadian model (GEM)46°37°71%
The average46°39°83%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 38°   Rain 49%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 91 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 3% against a group average of 49%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°36°3%
US model (GFS)48°41°35%
European model (ECMWF)45°38°94%
German model (ICON)48°40°49%
Canadian model (GEM)43°35°62%
The average46°38°49%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.