Minority Report

Clinton, IL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of De Witt County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 45°   Low 33°   Rain 25%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 48 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 52% against a group average of 25%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°12%
US model (GFS)45°34°4%
European model (ECMWF)46°35°52%
German model (ICON)45°34°10%
Canadian model (GEM)44°33°46%
The average45°33°25%

Friday, November 13

High 42°   Low 29°   Rain 4%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 15 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 15% against a group average of 4%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°26°15%
US model (GFS)42°30°1%
European model (ECMWF)42°31°2%
German model (ICON)42°31°3%
Canadian model (GEM)41°29°0%
The average42°29°4%

Saturday, November 14

High 46°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°26°0%
US model (GFS)46°24°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°28°0%
German model (ICON)46°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°23°0%
The average46°26°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 49°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°28°0%
US model (GFS)51°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°29°0%
German model (ICON)49°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)48°18°0%
The average49°28°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.