Minority Report

Coleman, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Coleman County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 74°   Low 49°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—51°0%
US model (GFS)77°49°0%
European model (ECMWF)72°51°0%
German model (ICON)74°46°0%
Canadian model (GEM)73°48°0%
The average74°49°0%

Friday, November 13

High 72°   Low 49°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service72°48°1%
US model (GFS)75°52°0%
European model (ECMWF)70°51°0%
German model (ICON)72°45°0%
Canadian model (GEM)73°49°0%
The average72°49°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 62°   Low 50°   Rain 81%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 13°, rain spread 36 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 59% against a group average of 81%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service63°52°82%
US model (GFS)60°48°59%
European model (ECMWF)63°49°95%
German model (ICON)55°50°92%
Canadian model (GEM)68°49°75%
The average62°50°81%

Sunday, November 15

High 65°   Low 48°   Rain 82%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 10°, rain spread 37 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 63% against a group average of 82%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service62°45°66%
US model (GFS)72°51°63%
European model (ECMWF)62°49°98%
German model (ICON)63°47°85%
Canadian model (GEM)67°46°100%
The average65°48°82%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.