Minority Report

Columbia, KY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Adair County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 56°   Low 41°   Rain 59%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 72 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 22% against a group average of 59%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—36°22%
US model (GFS)56°44°25%
European model (ECMWF)56°42°94%
German model (ICON)56°43°75%
Canadian model (GEM)56°41°81%
The average56°41°59%

Friday, November 13

High 44°   Low 34°   Rain 46%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 59 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 87% against a group average of 46%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°30°55%
US model (GFS)44°34°31%
European model (ECMWF)44°35°87%
German model (ICON)44°36°28%
Canadian model (GEM)43°36°29%
The average44°34°46%

Saturday, November 14

High 48°   Low 29°   Rain 7%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 24 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 24% against a group average of 7%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°26°0%
US model (GFS)48°32°2%
European model (ECMWF)47°31°0%
German model (ICON)47°33°8%
Canadian model (GEM)47°25°24%
The average48°29°7%

Sunday, November 15

High 52°   Low 29°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°26°0%
US model (GFS)52°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)52°32°0%
German model (ICON)54°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°20°0%
The average52°29°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.