Minority Report

Columbia, NC — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Tyrrell County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 71°   Low 50°   Rain 14%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 1°, rain spread 30 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 30% against a group average of 14%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—45°24%
US model (GFS)71°48°30%
European model (ECMWF)72°52°12%
German model (ICON)72°52°3%
Canadian model (GEM)71°54°0%
The average71°50°14%

Friday, November 13

High 58°   Low 45°   Rain 7%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 26 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 26% against a group average of 7%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service59°40°4%
US model (GFS)57°45°26%
European model (ECMWF)58°47°2%
German model (ICON)59°44°3%
Canadian model (GEM)58°47°0%
The average58°45°7%

Saturday, November 14

High 53°   Low 39°   Rain 2%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 9 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°39°0%
US model (GFS)53°38°9%
European model (ECMWF)52°41°1%
German model (ICON)53°36°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°43°0%
The average53°39°2%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 39°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°42°0%
US model (GFS)54°41°0%
European model (ECMWF)55°39°0%
German model (ICON)57°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°42°0%
The average56°39°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.