Minority Report

Columbiana, AL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Shelby County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 68°   Low 48°   Rain 23%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 82 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 82% against a group average of 23%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—38°0%
US model (GFS)68°51°25%
European model (ECMWF)67°50°82%
German model (ICON)67°49°3%
Canadian model (GEM)68°53°5%
The average68°48°23%

Friday, November 13

High 54°   Low 37°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°33°0%
US model (GFS)52°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)53°40°0%
German model (ICON)54°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°39°0%
The average54°37°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 54°   Low 33°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°32°0%
US model (GFS)55°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)53°37°0%
German model (ICON)55°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°33°0%
The average54°33°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 33°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°35°3%
US model (GFS)57°34°1%
European model (ECMWF)55°34°0%
German model (ICON)57°29°3%
Canadian model (GEM)54°30°0%
The average56°33°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.