Connersville, IN — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Fayette County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 51° Low 39° Rain 50%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 59 points, 3 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 38° | 51% |
| US model (GFS) | 51° | 39° | 22% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 52° | 40° | 48% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 51° | 39° | 81% |
| The average | 51° | 39° | 50% |
High 42° Low 33° Rain 32%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 49 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 42° | 28° | 25% |
| US model (GFS) | 42° | 32° | 10% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 44° | 38° | 35% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 42° | 35° | 59% |
| The average | 42° | 33° | 32% |
High 45° Low 30° Rain 1%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 2 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 45° | 31° | 1% |
| US model (GFS) | 45° | 31° | 2% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 44° | 31° | 2% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 45° | 26° | 0% |
| The average | 45° | 30° | 1% |
High 47° Low 33° Rain 0%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 2 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 48° | 30° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 47° | 38° | 0% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 44° | 38° | 2% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 47° | 24° | 0% |
| The average | 47° | 33° | 0% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.