Minority Report

Conroe, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Montgomery County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 79°   Low 53°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—45°0%
US model (GFS)81°56°0%
European model (ECMWF)78°56°0%
German model (ICON)78°55°0%
Canadian model (GEM)80°53°0%
The average79°53°0%

Friday, November 13

High 77°   Low 50°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service75°43°0%
US model (GFS)79°53°0%
European model (ECMWF)76°55°0%
German model (ICON)76°51°0%
Canadian model (GEM)80°49°0%
The average77°50°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 66°   Low 49°   Rain 18%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 37 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 37% against a group average of 18%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°48°31%
US model (GFS)68°49°4%
European model (ECMWF)67°50°37%
German model (ICON)60°47°18%
Canadian model (GEM)68°52°0%
The average66°49°18%

Sunday, November 15

High 63°   Low 52°   Rain 77%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 12°, rain spread 36 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 56% against a group average of 77%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service64°51°74%
US model (GFS)70°54°56%
European model (ECMWF)58°51°92%
German model (ICON)58°52°78%
Canadian model (GEM)66°50°86%
The average63°52°77%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.