Minority Report

Coupeville, WA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Island County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 60°   Low 53°   Rain 12%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 37 points, 3 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 37% against a group average of 12%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—53°37%
US model (GFS)62°53°7%
German model (ICON)60°53°3%
Canadian model (GEM)59°54°0%
The average60°53°12%

Friday, November 13

High 58°   Low 51°   Rain 58%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 18 points, 4 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service60°50°64%
US model (GFS)59°49°49%
German model (ICON)56°53°53%
Canadian model (GEM)58°51°67%
The average58°51°58%

Saturday, November 14

High 56°   Low 50°   Rain 74%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 35 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 53% against a group average of 74%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°50°88%
US model (GFS)55°49°82%
German model (ICON)56°51°71%
Canadian model (GEM)57°51°53%
The average56°50°74%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 48°   Rain 80%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 20 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 69% against a group average of 80%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°46°69%
US model (GFS)54°50°82%
German model (ICON)57°47°80%
Canadian model (GEM)56°50°89%
The average56°48°80%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.