Minority Report

Crockett, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Houston County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 78°   Low 52°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—46°0%
US model (GFS)77°52°0%
European model (ECMWF)79°55°0%
German model (ICON)77°52°0%
Canadian model (GEM)78°54°0%
The average78°52°0%

Friday, November 13

High 71°   Low 49°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service70°45°0%
US model (GFS)71°49°0%
European model (ECMWF)73°54°0%
German model (ICON)69°48°0%
Canadian model (GEM)74°49°0%
The average71°49°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 65°   Low 47°   Rain 22%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 39 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 0% against a group average of 22%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service64°46°36%
US model (GFS)67°46°10%
European model (ECMWF)67°49°39%
German model (ICON)61°44°25%
Canadian model (GEM)66°50°0%
The average65°47°22%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 47°   Rain 83%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 32 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 64% against a group average of 83%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service58°46°81%
US model (GFS)58°47°64%
European model (ECMWF)55°47°96%
German model (ICON)51°47°86%
Canadian model (GEM)57°48°90%
The average56°47°83%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.