Minority Report

Crystal Falls, MI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Iron County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 35°   Low 29°   Rain 29%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 40 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 53% against a group average of 29%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—24°46%
US model (GFS)35°31°17%
European model (ECMWF)36°30°13%
German model (ICON)36°29°53%
Canadian model (GEM)34°30°14%
The average35°29°29%

Friday, November 13

High 34°   Low 29°   Rain 17%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 44 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 47% against a group average of 17%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service34°30°47%
US model (GFS)34°30°12%
European model (ECMWF)35°28°16%
German model (ICON)35°29°3%
Canadian model (GEM)33°28°5%
The average34°29°17%

Saturday, November 14

High 39°   Low 26°   Rain 2%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 11 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service38°22°0%
US model (GFS)38°27°11%
European model (ECMWF)40°27°0%
German model (ICON)39°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)38°24°0%
The average39°26°2%

Sunday, November 15

High 43°   Low 24°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°21°0%
US model (GFS)42°27°0%
European model (ECMWF)44°26°0%
German model (ICON)44°25°0%
Canadian model (GEM)42°20°0%
The average43°24°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.