Culpeper, VA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Culpeper County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 65° Low 41° Rain 43%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 93 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 42° | 5% |
| US model (GFS) | 64° | 41° | 18% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 64° | 44° | 98% |
| German model (ICON) | 65° | 41° | 70% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 68° | 38° | 24% |
| The average | 65° | 41° | 43% |
High 51° Low 36° Rain 5%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 51° | 31° | 6% |
| US model (GFS) | 49° | 34° | 4% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 52° | 42° | 4% |
| German model (ICON) | 51° | 33° | 8% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 52° | 40° | 5% |
| The average | 51° | 36° | 5% |
High 50° Low 31° Rain 1%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 52° | 30° | 2% |
| US model (GFS) | 50° | 30° | 2% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 50° | 37° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 50° | 27° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 50° | 34° | 2% |
| The average | 50° | 31° | 1% |
High 53° Low 33° Rain 0%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 55° | 30° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 52° | 33° | 0% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 52° | 41° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 54° | 29° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 53° | 30° | 0% |
| The average | 53° | 33° | 0% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.