Dayton, OH — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Montgomery County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 53° Low 41° Rain 76%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 55 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 38° | 78% |
| US model (GFS) | 52° | 42° | 45% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 53° | 42° | 97% |
| German model (ICON) | 52° | 43° | 58% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 53° | 42° | 100% |
| The average | 53° | 41° | 76% |
High 43° Low 35° Rain 55%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 60 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 42° | 31° | 26% |
| US model (GFS) | 43° | 35° | 35% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 44° | 38° | 86% |
| German model (ICON) | 44° | 36° | 43% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 42° | 36° | 86% |
| The average | 43° | 35° | 55% |
High 45° Low 31° Rain 1%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 46° | 35° | 1% |
| US model (GFS) | 44° | 31° | 2% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 45° | 30° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 45° | 30° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 44° | 28° | 1% |
| The average | 45° | 31° | 1% |
High 47° Low 36° Rain 0%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 49° | 33° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 47° | 42° | 0% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 46° | 38° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 50° | 36° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 46° | 31° | 0% |
| The average | 47° | 36° | 0% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.